The list of these relevant players are as follows, by APY, and their old and new teams, with teams that could have comp picks on the line bolded:

• Riley Dixon: $3M, Broncos => Bucs
• Tyler Conklin: $3M, Jets => Chargers
• Emmanuel Ogbah: $3.25M, Dolphins => Jaguars
• Elandon Roberts: $3.01M, Steelers => Raiders
• Mike Williams: $3M, Steelers => Chargers
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: $2.995M, Titans => Dolphins
• Solomon Thomas: $3M, Jets => Cowboys
• Javonte Williams: $3M, Broncos => Cowboys
• Tre’Davious White: $3M, Ravens => Bills
• Tremon Smith: $3.25M, Broncos => Texans
• Trent Sherfield: $3M, Vikings => Broncos
• Brandin Echols: $3M, Jets => Steelers
• Cooper Rush: $3.1M, Cowboys => Ravens
• Isaac Yiadom, $3M, 49ers => Saints
• Morgan Fox: $2.75M, Chargers => Falcons
• Benjamin St-Juste: $2.5M, Commanders => Chargers
• Daniel Ekuale: $2.7M, Patriots => Steelers
• Ifeatu Melifonwu: $3M, Lions => Dolphins
• Nick Niemann: $3M, Chargers => Texans
• Johnny Mundt: $2.75M, Vikings => Jaguars
• Rico Dowdle: $2.75M, Cowboys => Panthers
• JK Dobbins: $2.75M, Chargers => Broncos

The two charts to the right/below show two extreme projections. The left chart shows what would happen if none of these players qualify, while the right chart shows what would happen if all of them qualify. As extremes, both projections are extremely unlikely to happen. But I share it here to show just how much variance 2026 could have when it comes to awarding comp picks.

The Ravens are clearly planning for their comp picks to be two 5th rounders and at least one 7th rounder, with another 7th rounder merely a nice to have if they get it. If disaster were to strike and Lamar Jackson were to miss several games, giving Cooper Rush enough snaps to qualify, it would only cost them a 7th rounder at most.

Unlike the Ravens, the Cowboys have much more at stake. They will have to decide just how much they want to play Javonte Williams and Solomon Thomas, both of whom are expected to be part of committees at their positions. If either play enough to qualify as CFAs, they risk cancelling out first a 6th rounder, and then a 5th rounder. They could get some unexpected 7th round insurance if, as explained above with the Ravens, Cooper Rush plays more than expected. Rico Dowdle could also do the same if he hits incentives in his contract with the Panthers.

The Broncos look to end their league leading active comp pick drought, but only 7th rounders are in play. Exactly how many could range from zero to three depending on, again, how Williams is handled in committee in Dallas, as well as whether or not Tremon Smith and Trent Sherfield are confined to special teams snaps, which do not count in the compensatory formula. Like JK Dowdle, JK Dobbins could alwso qualify against Denver if he hits incentives. Provided that he does not play a heavily abridged season, the most likely 7th rounder would be for Riley Dixon going to Tampa.

For the Lions it all comes down to whether Ifeatu Melifonwu emerges as a starter or heavy contributor in the Dolphins’ defense. Miami’s depth at safety is questionable, so the Lions should be optimistic that he qualifies, and if so, that opens up a 5th rounder for Kevin Zeitler going to Nashville. Note that even if Melfonwu doesn’t qualify, it’s still possible but not guaranteed for Detroit to earn a “net value” 7th rounder for their CFAs lost signing for much more than CFAs that they signed.

The Raiders should have 4th and 5th round comp picks in the bank. Whether or not they add another 5th rounder to that hinges on whether they use Elandon Roberts as a starter at linebacker. Roberts now has extra competition with the team signing Germaine Pratt after he was recently cut by the Bengals, along with fellow new signee Devin White.

I find it highly unlikely that the Chargers will get comp picks in 2026, but since they are implicated in several borderline players here, I include them here for completeness, in case the Lloyd Christmas odds actually do strike. If they can get net positive, though, a 5th rounder could be the first to open up.

The Dolphins have one 4th round pick for Jevon Holland going to the Giants to focus on, and whether or not they get it hinges on how much they play the aforementioned Melifonwu from the Lions, and also how much they play Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at WR3 alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They would lose the 4th rounder if both play enough to qualify.

The top 3rd rounder and either a 4th or 5th rounder for quarterbacks that left in free agency should be secure for the Vikings. The only question for them is whether or not they can add a 7th or two on top of that as a bonus. But Sherfield is expected to be strictly a special teamer in Denver, while Johnny Mundt has never played more than 38.9% of the snaps in a season.

The Saints will have a decision on whether to play Isaac Yiadom as a starter or heavy contributor at cornerback, a position the team looks to be shallow in. But if they do, the tradeoff will be sacrificing a 4th rounder for a corner that left them in free agency, Paulson Adebo.

Like with some other teams, the Jets have a primary comp pick that’s locked in–for them a 4th rounder–while they could additionally get up to three 7th rounders depending on how many snaps some of their former players get.

The Steelers are the inverse of the Chargers in that it’s highly unlikely they’ll get anything less than the maximum of four comp picks. (Do note in the best case scenario that their last two 6th rounders would be disregarded.) But since they too have multiple players on the qualification bubble that they’re implicated in, they too are included for completion purposes.

The 49ers have the inverse situation of the Saints, where high snap count contributions by Yiadom can get them to max out at four total comp picks, with the fourth one being pretty decent in the 5th round. The other three comp picks look to be awarded to San Francisco no matter what.

At the very least, if Riley Dixon were to miss most of the season, a silver lining for the Bucs would be that they would gain a 6th round pick for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka going to Cleveland. However, something that is still unclear is that, while Dixon is still liable to count against the Bucs if they cut him, whether or not punting statistics will count against them if he compiles them for another team.