With the regular season finished, let’s take a look once again at a list of players who could see their contracts terminated or negatively altered in the leadup to the start of the next league year. Looking at the list of pending unrestricted free agents coming from contracts that are expiring is regularly a useful starting point, but as we all know, more players will become available free agents to sign by being cut from their previous teams.
This list is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months. The metrics used are OTC’s estimation of contract fate, and the regular season OTC Valuation metric from 2025 when compared to the league median, to try to forecast a more accurate picture.
As always, it is stressed that most players on this list will likely not be cut. There are many mitigating factors as to why players show up on this list. One of course is injury, particularly to players who missed most of the season–although it can also be an aggravating factor if the team determines that injury has made the player unreliable on his contract. Quality of roster depth at the player’s position is another. Teams are also always willing and able to break the trends of contract fate and keep players they think will be helpful for next season’s roster. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players on this list are unlikely to be cut, even if it’s informative to see them on the list.
With that, this list is built from the players who:
- Are due a minimum of $4 million in cash for 2025.
- Have a negative contract fate greater than 50%.
- Are within the top 100 in players with the worst OTC valuation above median starter, which is defined in OTC’s explainer of the valuation diamond.
| # | Name | Team | Position | Age | APY | 2026 Cash Due | 2026 Guaranteed Salary | Seasons Completed/ Contract Length | 2025 OTC Valuation Above Starter Median | Odds Of Negative Fate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | Browns | QB | 31 | $46,000,000 | $46,000,000 | $46,000,000 | 4/5 | ($23,964,000) | 59.1% |
| 2 | Jarrett Stidham | Broncos | QB | 30 | $6,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($23,964,000) | 53.1% |
| 3 | Andy Dalton | Panthers | QB | 39 | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($22,158,000) | 53.1% |
| 4 | Jameis Winston | Giants | QB | 32 | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $1,300,000 | 1/2 | ($21,279,000) | 53.1% |
| 5 | Justin Fields | Jets | QB | 27 | $20,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $10,000,000 | 1/2 | ($15,282,000) | 53.1% |
| 6 | Patrick Jones II | Panthers | EDGE | 28 | $7,500,000 | $6,500,000 | $1,750,000 | 1/2 | ($10,734,000) | 58.5% |
| 7 | Mike Danna | Chiefs | EDGE | 29 | $8,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($10,334,000) | 70.7% |
| 8 | Anfernee Jennings | Patriots | EDGE | 29 | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($10,306,000) | 70.7% |
| 9 | Anthony Nelson | Buccaneers | EDGE | 29 | $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($9,048,000) | 58.5% |
| 10 | Sean Murphy-Bunting | Cardinals | CB | 29 | $4,487,500 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($8,918,000) | 65.2% |
| 11 | Dorance Armstrong Jr. | Commanders | EDGE | 29 | $11,000,000 | $9,355,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($8,690,000) | 70.7% |
| 12 | Will Dissly | Chargers | TE | 30 | $4,666,666 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($8,407,000) | 69.1% |
| 13 | Tyreek Hill | Dolphins | WR | 32 | $30,000,000 | $36,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($8,213,000) | 66.3% |
| 14 | L’Jarius Sneed | Titans | CB | 29 | $19,100,000 | $16,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($8,213,000) | 60.0% |
| 15 | Baron Browning | Cardinals | EDGE | 27 | $7,500,000 | $6,695,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($8,194,000) | 58.5% |
| 16 | Calvin Ridley | Titans | WR | 32 | $23,000,000 | $21,750,000 | $3,020,000 | 2/4 | ($8,098,000) | 61.2% |
| 17 | Joe Mixon | Texans | RB | 30 | $9,875,000 | $8,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($7,807,000) | 57.8% |
| 18 | Jaylon Johnson | Bears | CB | 27 | $19,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($7,534,000) | 60.0% |
| 19 | Kristian Fulton | Chiefs | CB | 28 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,000,000 | 1/2 | ($7,435,000) | 65.2% |
| 20 | Demarcus Robinson | 49ers | WR | 32 | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($7,160,000) | 73.3% |
| 21 | James Conner | Cardinals | RB | 31 | $9,500,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($6,914,000) | 57.8% |
| 22 | Charlie Woerner | Falcons | TE | 29 | $4,000,000 | $4,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($6,804,000) | 69.1% |
| 23 | Devin Singletary | Giants | RB | 29 | $5,500,000 | $5,250,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($6,198,000) | 81.0% |
| 24 | Aaron Jones | Vikings | RB | 32 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($6,146,000) | 57.8% |
| 25 | Darious Williams | Rams | CB | 33 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($6,045,000) | 65.9% |
| 26 | Alvin Kamara | Saints | RB | 31 | $12,250,000 | $11,500,000 | $3,000,000 | 1/2 | ($5,997,000) | 57.8% |
| 27 | Marshon Lattimore | Commanders | CB | 30 | $19,400,000 | $18,500,000 | $0 | 4/5 | ($5,921,000) | 79.4% |
| 28 | Bilal Nichols | Cardinals | IDL | 30 | $7,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($5,793,000) | 63.4% |
| 29 | Broderick Washington | Ravens | IDL | 30 | $5,250,000 | $4,010,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($5,793,000) | 63.4% |
| 30 | Frankie Luvu | Commanders | EDGE | 30 | $10,333,333 | $8,995,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($5,408,000) | 70.7% |
| 31 | Marlon Humphrey | Ravens | CB | 30 | $19,500,000 | $19,250,000 | $0 | 4/5 | ($5,256,000) | 79.4% |
| 32 | Davon Godchaux | Saints | IDL | 32 | $5,500,000 | $6,500,000 | $3,000,000 | 1/2 | ($4,819,000) | 63.6% |
| 33 | Bryce Huff | 49ers | EDGE | 28 | $17,033,333 | $17,100,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,788,000) | 70.7% |
| 34 | Arik Armstead | Jaguars | EDGE | 33 | $14,500,000 | $14,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,691,000) | 70.7% |
| 35 | Mario Edwards Jr. | Texans | IDL | 32 | $4,750,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($4,685,000) | 63.6% |
| 36 | Dalvin Tomlinson | Cardinals | IDL | 32 | $14,500,000 | $14,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($4,543,000) | 63.6% |
| 37 | Malik Hooker | Cowboys | S | 30 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,254,000) | 75.4% |
| 38 | Ryan Kelly | Vikings | C | 33 | $9,000,000 | $8,750,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($4,243,000) | 56.9% |
| 39 | Davon Hamilton | Jaguars | IDL | 29 | $11,500,000 | $8,435,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,099,000) | 63.4% |
| 40 | Tommy Tremble | Panthers | TE | 26 | $5,250,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($3,817,000) | 65.7% |
| 41 | Evan Engram | Broncos | TE | 32 | $11,500,000 | $11,500,000 | $5,000,000 | 1/2 | ($3,603,000) | 65.7% |
| 42 | Will Harris | Commanders | S | 31 | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($3,597,000) | 52.3% |
| 43 | Kenny Moore | Colts | CB | 31 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($2,992,000) | 65.9% |
| 44 | Darnell Mooney | Falcons | WR | 29 | $13,000,000 | $11,980,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($2,957,000) | 66.3% |
| 45 | Malik Harrison | Steelers | LB | 28 | $5,000,000 | $4,750,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,936,000) | 59.0% |
| 46 | Uchenna Nwosu | Seahawks | EDGE | 30 | $9,755,000 | $11,510,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,883,000) | 58.5% |
| 47 | Tedarrell Slaton | Bengals | IDL | 29 | $7,050,000 | $6,160,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,571,000) | 63.6% |
| 48 | Roy Robertson-Harris | Giants | IDL | 33 | $4,500,000 | $4,100,000 | $1,000,000 | 1/2 | ($2,482,000) | 63.6% |
| 49 | Jason Sanders | Dolphins | K | 31 | $4,400,000 | $4,250,000 | $0 | 4/5 | ($2,365,000) | 100.0% |
| 50 | Jonathan Greenard | Vikings | EDGE | 29 | $19,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($2,319,000) | 50.0% |
| 51 | Christian Elliss | Patriots | LB | 27 | $6,754,000 | $7,379,000 | $2,250,000 | 1/2 | ($2,264,000) | 59.0% |
| 52 | Logan Wilson | Cowboys | LB | 30 | $9,000,000 | $6,550,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($2,200,000) | 57.6% |
| 53 | Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | QB | 34 | $6,250,000 | $5,440,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,162,000) | 53.1% |
| 54 | Denzel Ward | Browns | CB | 29 | $20,100,000 | $20,000,000 | $0 | 3/5 | ($1,939,000) | 58.8% |
| 55 | Xavier Woods | Titans | S | 31 | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($1,870,000) | 52.3% |
| 56 | Dawson Knox | Bills | TE | 30 | $9,833,333 | $12,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,523,000) | 69.1% |
| 57 | Akeem Davis-Gaither | Cardinals | LB | 29 | $5,000,000 | $4,695,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($1,426,000) | 59.0% |
| 58 | Tony Pollard | Titans | RB | 29 | $7,250,000 | $7,250,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,414,000) | 81.0% |
| 59 | Colby Parkinson | Rams | TE | 27 | $7,500,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,283,000) | 69.1% |
| 60 | Cole Kmet | Bears | TE | 27 | $12,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($1,188,000) | 57.7% |
| 61 | Grover Stewart | Colts | IDL | 33 | $13,000,000 | $12,250,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($866,000) | 63.4% |
| 62 | T.J. Hockenson | Vikings | TE | 29 | $16,500,000 | $16,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($702,000) | 57.7% |
| 63 | Grant Delpit | Browns | S | 28 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($195,000) | 75.4% |
| 64 | Tyler Biadasz | Commanders | C | 29 | $10,000,000 | $8,300,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($168,000) | 65.5% |
| 65 | Daron Payne | Commanders | IDL | 29 | $22,500,000 | $22,410,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $0 | 61.4% |
| 66 | Jake Brendel | 49ers | C | 34 | $4,125,000 | $4,225,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $0 | 53.8% |
| 67 | Brandon Jones | Broncos | S | 28 | $6,666,667 | $6,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $0 | 75.4% |
| 68 | Javon Hargrave | Vikings | IDL | 33 | $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $4,000,000 | 1/2 | $46,000 | 63.6% |
| 69 | Maliek Collins | Browns | IDL | 31 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $3,000,000 | 1/2 | $92,000 | 63.6% |
| 70 | DeForest Buckner | Colts | IDL | 32 | $23,000,000 | $23,000,000 | $10,000,000 | 1/2 | $116,000 | 63.6% |
| 71 | Jeremy Chinn | Raiders | S | 28 | $8,129,000 | $7,629,000 | $4,250,000 | 1/2 | $123,000 | 52.3% |
| 72 | Josh Jacobs | Packers | RB | 28 | $12,000,000 | $11,500,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $316,000 | 64.0% |
| 73 | Patrick Queen | Steelers | LB | 27 | $13,666,666 | $13,330,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $460,000 | 76.4% |
| 74 | Donte Jackson | Chargers | CB | 31 | $6,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $757,000 | 65.2% |
| 75 | Rashan Gary | Packers | EDGE | 29 | $24,000,000 | $19,500,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $859,000 | 50.0% |
| 76 | James Daniels | Dolphins | RG | 29 | $8,000,000 | $7,870,000 | $0 | 1/3 | $924,000 | 51.9% |
| 77 | Jason Myers | Seahawks | K | 35 | $5,275,000 | $5,100,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $992,000 | 52.6% |
| 78 | Nick Allegretti | Commanders | LG | 30 | $5,333,333 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,065,000 | 64.0% |
| 79 | Mekhi Becton | Chargers | RG | 27 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,068,000 | 63.8% |
| 80 | Keisean Nixon | Packers | CB | 29 | $6,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,136,000 | 65.9% |
| 81 | James Hudson | Giants | RT | 27 | $6,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,139,000 | 56.5% |
| 82 | Alex Cappa | Raiders | RG | 31 | $5,510,000 | $5,010,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,155,000 | 63.8% |
| 83 | Jaylon Moore | Chiefs | LT | 28 | $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $7,000,000 | 1/2 | $1,175,000 | 61.5% |
| 84 | Elgton Jenkins | Packers | LG | 31 | $17,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $1,572,000 | 78.6% |
| 85 | Blake Cashman | Vikings | LB | 30 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,591,000 | 76.4% |
| 86 | D’Andre Swift | Bears | RB | 27 | $8,000,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,725,000 | 81.0% |
| 87 | Harrison Phillips | Jets | IDL | 30 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,963,000 | 63.6% |
| 88 | Jessie Bates III | Falcons | S | 29 | $16,005,000 | $14,020,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $2,016,000 | 76.1% |
| 89 | Minkah Fitzpatrick | Dolphins | S | 30 | $16,550,000 | $15,600,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,021,000 | 52.3% |
| 90 | A’Shawn Robinson | Panthers | IDL | 31 | $7,500,000 | $8,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $2,333,000 | 63.4% |
| 91 | Zaven Collins | Cardinals | LB | 27 | $7,000,000 | $4,353,217 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,525,000 | 59.0% |
| 92 | Carl Granderson | Saints | EDGE | 30 | $13,000,000 | $12,750,000 | $5,440,000 | 2/4 | $2,529,000 | 50.0% |
| 93 | Evan Brown | Cardinals | LG | 30 | $5,750,000 | $5,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,618,000 | 75.6% |
| 94 | Dalton Schultz | Texans | TE | 30 | $12,000,000 | $11,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $3,049,000 | 69.1% |
| 95 | Tremaine Edmunds | Bears | LB | 28 | $18,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $3,080,000 | 75.8% |
| 96 | Patrick Mekari | Jaguars | RG | 29 | $12,500,000 | $11,500,000 | $8,000,000 | 1/3 | $3,163,000 | 51.9% |
| 97 | Davante Adams | Rams | WR | 34 | $22,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $6,000,000 | 1/2 | $3,581,000 | 73.3% |
| 98 | Graham Glasgow | Lions | RG | 34 | $6,666,667 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $3,603,000 | 74.1% |
| 99 | Hunter Henry | Patriots | TE | 32 | $9,000,000 | $8,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $3,873,000 | 69.1% |
| 100 | Isaiah Rodgers | Vikings | CB | 28 | $5,522,500 | $5,000,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | $3,923,000 | 65.2% |
Breakdown by team
Here are the number of players each team has on this list:
- 9: Cardinals
- 7: Vikings, Commanders
- 4: Panthers, Dolphins, Packers, Browns, Bears, Giants, Titans
- 3: Patriots, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Jaguars, Falcons, Saints, Texans, 49ers, Colts, Rams
- 2: Seahawks, Steelers, Jets, Ravens, Raiders, Cowboys
- 1: Bills, Buccaneers, Bengals, Lions
- 0: Eagles
While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2026. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.
Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2026 versus their 2026 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.
The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2026 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might still make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.
The teams in the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. These are teams who for most of them would be expected to stay largely committed to their rosters for 2026.
Teams in the top right quadrant have plenty to spend, but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Never rule out any of these teams making skill based cuts regardless of their current finances, but the pressure to make those cuts is lower.
The teams in the lower right quadrant are the ones to focus on. They have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action will likely take place.
Teams of note
The Commanders and Vikings are the teams of note with the most money showing up on the list, even while they reside in opposing quadrant corners. They both followed the typical book of going in heavy on veteran talent after having successful seasons after drafting a rookie quarterback high. But both had very disappointing seasons this time around, and there should be questions as to whether those veteran investments remain worth it.
The decisions of whether to cut or restructure will be more urgent for the Vikings given the cap dollars they need to clear. But another way that they diverge is that the Commanders also have the highest number of snaps entering free agency. There could be major roster churn just on those grounds alone, even if they don’t need or want to cut other players under contract.
The Cardinals are right in between the above two teams in cap space, with less money showing up on the list, but they also have the highest number of players on the list. Kyler Murray is not one of those players, but with rumors that he could be on the outs in Glendale, along with a new coaching staff on the way, considerable roster churn could also be on the way.
The Dolphins are similar to the Cardinals in that they are also making a coaching change, and may also have a change at quarterback away from Tua Tagovailoa–also not on this list. However, the majority of the money that shows up in this list is in one player: Tyreek Hill, who suffered a devastating knee injury bringing serious doubt on any return to the field. Parting ways with Hill will address the lion’s share of Miami’s notability here, even if more change could be on the way.
The Browns’ high amount of money on the chart above does not include Deshaun Watson, despite his presence as #1 on the list, as his contract is infamously fully guaranteed. Regardless of what they end up doing with him, they’ll have to find a way to balance one more season worth of wasted cap dollars and cash in order to make their ledger for 2026 fit.
Finally, I would not look too much into the Chiefs’ placement at the very bottom of the chart. They have a lot of salary due to Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones that are not going anywhere that they can and will restructure to get into compliance for 2026.