While it is probably too early to say it’s over for most teams in the NFL it sure feels like it is over for the New York Jets. The overhyped Jets fell to 2-6 following their 5th straight loss, this time to the hapless Patriots whose own head coach called them soft after being non-competitive for most of the last four or five weeks. The Jets offense has been unproductive. They cant run the ball. They cant keep the QB upright. The QB looks like end of career Peyton Manning except without the Denver Broncos supporting cast around him. The questions are coming up about options for the Jets in 2025 so lets look ahead at where the team stands next season.
The Jets are currently 15th in projected cap space for 2025, but that number is a bit misleading as it includes Davantae Adams $35.6 million salary which nobody expected him to ever earn with the Raiders when he signed that deal nor with the Jets when they traded for him. His release will open up about $30 million in salary cap space to put the Jets near the $80 million mark for cap room, which is right around 5th in the NFL. That’s the good news.
The Jets rank 10th in the NFL in unrestricted free agents with 20 players coming off the roster next year so they will have a head start on remaking the roster if they let those players walk, which they should do in almost every case despite the fact that the players with voiding contracts would leave the Jets with about $24 million in dead money.
The first question the Jets will need to answer is what is next for Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, following his Achilles injury, looks nothing like the player who was winning MVP’s in Green Bay. He looks pretty much immobile and too often seems like he is on another page than most of his receivers. Whether it is age, injury, interest in outside things, or some combination of all of it, it is hard to really create a scenario where he returns outside of running the table and making a late push for a wildcard. Even then it may be time to step aside rather than run it back hoping that he finds some magic fountain of youth.
The salary cap charge for releasing Rodgers next year is $49 million, which would reduce the Jets cap room by $25.5 million, basically bringing the team back to where they are with Adams on the books. If Rodgers were to retire or the organization made the decision to June 1 him they could split that number across two years, but my thought is if you are going to blow it up, just take your lumps now since the salary cap should allow them to do it.
With Rodgers and Adams gone the Jets would officially be back into rebuilding mode, likely with a new general manager and coaching staff. The team would face big decisions about whether they go into full tear down mode or attempt to string things together with some of the current players. Any GM will be faced with major decisions on the few players the Jets have who are considered good talent. These players include Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Breece Hall, and Quincy Williams.
Wilson, Gardner, and Hall will all be entering their first season where they are allowed to be signed to a contract extension. Vera-Tucker will be entering the final year of his rookie contract while Williams is going to enter the final year of an extension signed in 2023 that he has vastly outperformed. Four of the five players are likely candidates to hold out to try to secure a new contract.
The talent of the players is pretty much well known as most of these players are more or less considered GM Joe Douglas’ biggest hits during his tenure with the team. Most will be costly and the new (or current if he is retained) GM needs to determine what benefits the team more: the return that could come via draft pick and salary cap savings or the attempt to compete in 2025 with a high draft pick QB and/or a journeyman who you hope can hit a Ryan Fitzpatrick 2015 type miracle year to play QB for the Jets in 2025. Neither scenario is likely. For every CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels there are multiple Bryce Young and Zach Wilsons and for every Baker Mayfield, Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum miracle there are years of Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Josh McCown, and Derek Carr letdowns.
Balancing current and future needs in the NFL is rarely easy and teams are always petrified to lose out on the outlier situation. Running backs like Hall are the easiest to walk away from. Hall is having his worst year as a pro with a 3.9 YPA behind this offensive line, but his big play ability both in the passing and running game is hard to ignore. The nature of the position likely means you would not get much in the way of a return for him but it is highly unlikely that spending $12-$14 million a year on a running back makes any sense when the QB of the team is nothing but a big question mark.
Wilson and Garnder are the much harder decisions. Both should bring back massive draft compensation packages considering the acquiring team would own the right to the young stars 2025 seasons, option years in 2026, and then whatever contract years they agree to tack onto the contract’s. While the running back outcomes are not really much of a debate anymore the wide receiver and corner positions probably deserve far more scrutiny than they currently receive.
Wide receiver career patterns are not that much different than running backs when you really study them. The fall is a little more graceful and hidden from view but for the most part receiver peak in years two through four of their careers, usually are still playing at a high level in year five with a few hiccups, and then really start to decline in efficiency in year 6. For a team with no current future at the QB position it is hard to really match up the QB and receiver career/salary arcs to get the best from both players. The issue with receivers is that unlike running backs who have like a 5% outlier rate there are probably in the ballpark of 20% of the wideouts who have a run that goes beyond those initial years. Tyreek Hill. Adams. Stefon Diggs. Keenan Allen. These are all examples of veteran players who played at a high enough level to win up on a third contract.
Corner is a position where Im not sure if we have really had a big debate on the long term value of a player, but I think we have had solid ones on the value of the one corner vs cornerback room and the NFL has leaned into the strength of the cornerback room versus paying the “lockdown corner”(if that position even exists). For a team who thinks that are right in contention with a young QB who has proven himself like Stroud in Houston, paying up for a player like Gardner makes sense. For a team like the Jets it is more of a question mark and one that probably comes down more to philosophy on building a team. My guess would be a defensive minded coach like Robert Saleh or Rex Ryan would want to pay up and see if they can build a defense around a player like Gardner even if they know there will be a decline of sorts in the next few years. An offensive minded coach is more likely to see two number ones and the savings of $25 million a year as a better use of resources.
Vera-Tucker has a long injury history and is the one player who likely won’t hold out and probably can not make a huge case for an extension. His injuries probably make him not worth trading and this is a situation where having him play out the 2025 year makes sense. The team can then either aim to get a comp pick or re-sign him to an extension depending on how he plays. This position does have a longer career arc than the other 3.
Williams is a very popular player in NY but I can not see investing big in a linebacker if the team goes through a major rebuilding project. He isn’t going to bring back the draft capital of the younger players but they may get something for him. If they can not they should look to see if they can find a happy medium for a raise for one year and then revisit it in 2026.
For those asking about trades next week I cant see it. The Jets big pieces I mentioned here would bring back more in 2025 than they would now and quite frankly those should be a decision for a new regime next year. If they can flip Adams now that would be fine but I don’t see that one unless he asks out after this weeks debacle. Really based on contract structure I would float DJ Reed as the only player who makes sense to trade now. He has an expiring contract and should have some value around the NFL.
Under a scenario like this the Jets dead money ledger will be a mess. Between Rodgers, the voiding contracts, and Adams the Jets would be at $81 million next year. Add in Allen Lazard and Greg Zuerlein and you are close to $90 million. To put that in perspective that number is $10 million more than where the Broncos are this year, but it puts the Jets in a good position to really turn the page and go into a legit rebuild, something they really haven’t done before as the Jets have almost always been in this half in/half out strategy since they fired Mike Tannenbaum following the 2012 season.
Teams are competitive even in years they tear things down like this if they make the right draft selections and personnel decisions. The Commanders are 6-2, the Vikings are 5-2 and the Broncos are 5-3 this season. The Broncos and Vikings are one and two in NFL at $81 million and $68 million in dead money while Washington is at $40 million. Teams like the Texans and Bears who have gone through these kind of teardowns recently are playing competitive football. Of course if you get it wrong you wind up like Carolina, but that is no different than what the Jets have produced for the last 10 years anyway so what do they really have to lose?