Last month, Ben Baldwin had a fun tweet I found quite intriguing, reranking the 2020 NFL Draft by size of players’ second contracts by APY:

Given that the source for this data is right here at OTC, it was evident to me that this exercise could be done for any draft. I also decided to use a different twist on this–instead of ranking by second contract, I looked at ranking to the highest APY each player has ever signed for.

This led to the construction of the Rookie Classes By APY page, found within this link.

The methodology is fairly simple: obtain each player’s maximum APY in his career, then rank all the players on such, and give an estimation of which round, if any, they would have been drafted in based solely on this APY relative to the total number of draft picks that season (~256). Obviously, maximum APY is not going to be a precise overlap on the overall player performance–some positions, particularly quarterback, get paid higher even as backups, and plenty of times a team has overestimated how much a player is worth when they sign such players in free agency. But there is enough correlation that I found this exercise to be useful.

Positional Rankings, 2011 to 2020

The columns on the left tally up the total number of players at each position in each estimated round, while the columns on the right express a percentage of such total players.

Here were some of the notable trends I saw, and it’s worth comparing to Jason’s earlier work of positional drafting strategies:

• Quarterback is very feast or famine–as is well known, the pay between starter level and backup level is vast, resulting in very few contracts ranked in the 2nd or 3rd round. However, even backups get sizeable contracts that end up in that 4th to 6th round range, roughly within a rank of 100th to 200th.
• The ends of both lines–tackle and edge rusher–are very first round heavy, with pluralities between one fourth and one fifth falling within the top 32 ranked players. This is more confirmation that along with quarterback, these positions should be drafted highly
• Wide receiver shows a bit of a U curve, with high 1st round rankings descending to a trough right in the middle, at the 4th round, before ascending again to frequent numbers in the late rounds. This likely indicates the difference between #1 and #2 WRs, versus slot receivers and backups.
• Interior defensive line and cornerback are distributed fairly evenly throughout the rankings, showing value all throughout each round of such a hypothetical draft.
• Guard salaries lag behind the above a bit, with most falling in the 2nd to 3rd round range–however, the trend of increased salaries at the position could see this change in the future.
• Most remaining positions on offense and defense show low quantities in the early rankings, and increasing amounts later on, again suggesting that these are not priority positions to pursue.
• Fullback and the special teams positions of course round out the bottom, but even viable starters there tend to cluster in the rankings around the 3rd round (kicker), 4th round (punter), or 5th round (long snapper and fullback). This does not suggest that these positions should be drafted then, or anywhere. But it does demonstrate that players that stick here are still able to earn APYs higher than fringe players, including some draft picks, that end up having shorter careers, not even becoming vested veterans.

Team Rankings, 2011 to 2020

On the Rookie Classes By APY page, there are two team rankings listed by each rookie class:

• Total value, expressing how much absolute talent teams were able to find in the rookie class.
• Relative value, expressing how well teams used their draft capital to find talent in the rookie class.

Note that each player is assigned by the team he was either drafted by, or signed as an undrafted free agent. This does not mean that the team derived the entire value of the player’s career, only that it was responsible for first identifying the player as one desired to add onto the team as a rookie.

Here’s a tabulation on how each team ranked in the past ten rookie classes, and the total ranking for each team on the left, expressed as the sum of each ten rankings. Because these are rankings, lower is better.

It should be no surprise to see the Ravens and Cowboys as the far and away leaders here, as they have excelled in identifying large quantities of rookie talent for a very long time. On the other end, it’s pretty grim in the Meadowlands, as the Jets and Giants both fall among the four worst teams in both total and relative value.

Among teams with high variance between the two rankings, the Saints, Bears, and Falcons were all much better in relative value than total value, indicating that they made the most out of the draft picks they had, but may not have fortified as well with a UDFA signings or a high number of draft picks. On the opposite end, the Browns really stand out as a team that was average in identifying total talent throughout the rookie class, but was absolutely dreadful in using its draft picks to get it, which should not be surprising given many notorious draft pick busts that they made.

Number Of Estimated Draft Worthy Players, By Team And Round, 2011-2020

Finally, let’s take a look at how many players fall into each estimated round by team over these ten rookie classes:

Once again, the Ravens are the clear leaders of the class here, helped immensely by their expert college scouting, and getting more darts to throw via the compensatory pick system. And once again, the Jets don’t surprise by coming in dead last, perhaps one of several indications as to why they have not made the playoffs since the beginning of this time span.

The Ravens also have the clear lead in the number of estimated 1st round rankings (between 1st to 32nd) with 16. On the other end, despite coming in slightly above average with total players within the top 256 or so in maximum APY, the Raiders had the fewest estimated 1st rounders with only 6–especially indicting given multiple trades that got them more actual 1st round picks than typical.

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In an upcoming article, I’ll take a look at each of the ten rookie classes from 2011 to 2020 individually, and point out some notable results that came from each one.