Projecting the 2025 Compensatory Picks

UPDATE, 2/12/2025: Geno Stone’s APY was set erroneously too high in the database when this article was originally published. This has been fixed, and the projection now places his contract as netting the Ravens a 6th rounder, and not a 5th–although that is still on the bubble of the cutoff.

This article refers specifically to OTC’s final projection for the 2025 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory pick cancellation charts here.

The Projection

TeamRdCompensated Departure
MIN3Kirk Cousins
MIA3Robert Hunt
NYG4Xavier McKinney
MIA4Christian Wilkins
BAL4Patrick Queen
SEA4Damien Lewis
SF4Chase Young
SF4Sam Darnold
DAL5Tyron Smith
BUF5Gabriel Davis
DAL5Dorance Armstrong Jr.
SEA5Jordyn Brooks
DAL5Tyler Biadasz
BUF5Leonard Floyd
BAL5Jadeveon Clowney
LAC5Kenneth Murray
BAL6Geno Stone
DAL6Tony Pollard
SEA6Bobby Wagner
BAL6Kevin Zeitler
LV6Bilal Nichols
LAC6Gerald Everett
CLE6Joe Flacco
CLE6Jordan Elliott
LV6Amik Robertson
GB7Yosuah Nijman
MIA7DeShon Elliott
LAC7Michael Davis
NO7Isaac Yiadom
SF7Ray-Ray McCloud
KC7Willie Gay, Jr.
CLE7Supplementary

This draft, I am projecting that there will be 31 regular compensatory picks generated from the typical netting process. However, exactly 32 picks must be awarded under typical circumstances. To get to this number, the formula will award additional supplementary comp picks in the order of what would be the 8th round. This draft, the Titans, Browns, and Giants finished tied for the worst win-loss records in the league. The order of their picks in each round alternates; by the time the rotation makes it to the 8th round, Cleveland would be first in order, thus it is projected to get the Mr. Irrelevant pick. If additional supplemental comp picks are needed, the next one would be awarded to the Giants, and then the Titans.

In recent seasons, the NFL Management Council has released the list of compensatory picks the week before the start of the new league year, which this season is March 12. Although it could hypothetically be released at any time after the Super Bowl, it is most likely to be released sometime between March 3 and 7.

Cutoff Projections

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where the cutoffs lie between each rounds, and where the cutoff for qualifying as a Compensatory Free Agent (CFA) is. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error.

The key number that determines these cutoffs is, per Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) of the CBA, is the number of “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season”. This draft, I will continue to use the average of the estimated number of leaguewide players in previous sets of compensatory picks, dating back to 2014. This average comes out to 1,960, and is the number that is used for the above projection. If that number is close to accurate, here is where the cutoffs would lie:

RoundPercentileOverall RankRepresentative Player
3rd/4th95th (top 5%)98Kenny Clark
4th/5th90th (top 10%)196Alvin Kamara
5th/6th85th (top 15%)294Justin Simmons
6th/7th75th (top 25%)490Jarrett Stidham
7th/Qualify65th (top 35%)686T’Vondre Sweat

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

  • Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #98
  • Xavier McKinney (New York Giants): #100
  • Christian Wilkins (Miami): #113

4th/5th

  • Sam Darnold (San Francisco): #192
  • Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #196
  • Gabe Davis (Green Bay): #205

5th/6th

  • Kenneth Murray (Los Angeles Chargers): #284
  • Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #294
  • Geno Stone (Baltimore): #301

6th/7th

None

7th/Qualifying

  • Willie Gay (Kansas City): #674
  • Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #686
  • Mike Edwards (Kansas City): #703

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

Most of the questions this draft center around standard guesswork as to where the cutoffs on which round are. One question that remains is if the NFL Management Council will continue to oddly view restructured contracts as new contracts. If it no longer does this, it could be good news for the Giants and Dolphins. Xavier McKinney had an outstanding season in Green Bay, with postseason honors boosting his contract very close to the 3rd round. Christian Wilkins, on the other hand, had a disappointing season in Las Vegas that was marred by injury, dropping his contract down to the 4th round. But if there’s a change, there’s a chance either or both could deliver a 3rd round comp pick instead.

Sam Darnold’s outstanding season has put his contract on the bubble of getting into the 4th round, after playing almost every snap in 2024. The only things that could have helped more is if he got any postseason honors, or he had incentives tied to his strong play. But if Darnold’s contract comes up just short, it’s a big drop for the 49ers, who will see that 4th for Darnold leaving for Minnesota instead turn to a 7th rounder for Clelin Ferrell going to DC.

The many permutations the Bills could have ended up with for their 2025 comp picks looks to land on two 5th rounders–with a possible 4th downgraded due to Gabe Davis missing most of 2024 with injury. Mack Hollins and Tim Settle look to have both clearly contributed to their teams enough to qualify as compensatory free agents. It’s unlikely that Mike Edwards will do the same, as he was cut by the Bills, and despite later returning to the Bucs and playing a decent amount of snaps for 5 games, but not enough to receive a snap count boost in the formula. But if Edwards were to qualify, that would cost the Bills one of their 5th rounders.

Edwards qualifying could help the Chiefs gain an additional 7th rounder. But the more likely bubble situation to watch for them and the Saints regards whether Willie Gay qualifies. Having just missed playing 25% of the snaps, his contract got no boost in that regard, drawing it very close to the qualifying cutoff. Should he not become a CFA, Kansas City would be completely shut of 2025 comp picks, and New Orleans would go from getting one 7th rounder to two.