This article refers specifically to OTC’s final projection for the 2025 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory pick cancellation charts here.

The Projection

This draft, I am projecting that there will be 34 regular compensatory picks generated from the typical netting process. However, exactly 32 picks must be awarded under typical circumstances. This means that the two comp picks in excess of 32, for the New York Jets and Denver, will not be awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge that the teams were otherwise eligible for the picks.

In recent seasons, the NFL Management Council has released the list of compensatory picks the week before the start of the new league year, which this season is March 12. Although it could hypothetically be released at any time after the Super Bowl, it is most likely to be released sometime between March 3 and 7.

Cutoff Projections

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where the cutoffs lie between each rounds, and where the cutoff for qualifying as a Compensatory Free Agent (CFA) is. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error. The key number that determines these cutoffs is, per Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) of the CBA, is the number of “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season”.

What exactly defines “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season” has long been mysterious. But at long last, a key missing piece of the puzzle has been discovered that could finally provide a regularly accurate estimate of this number. Per a source that OTC considers reliable, in order to be included among the number of leaguewide players, a player not only has to be on a roster for Week 18, but also must have been on any NFL roster for at least 10 games. A player appears to be considered “on a roster” if he is on the 53 player roster (active or inactive), is elevated from the practice squad, or is on a reserve list (Injured Reserve being the most common). A week spent on the practice squad without elevation does not count.

This additional rule is likely a holdover from the compensatory formula before the 2020 CBA. Before then, compensatory free agents were also subject to the 10 game rule in order to qualify. However, this was changed in the 2020 CBA, likely due to multiple teams the season before abruptly cutting CFAs that would have cost them a comp pick.

After going through the list of players on rosters on Week 18, and removing those who did not meet the 10 game threshold, this provided an estimate of 1,967 players, and is the number that is used for the above projection. If that number is close to accurate, here is where the cutoffs would lie:

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

I consider myself very fortunate that I have been informed of this additional 10 game threshold for this draft’s projection, because otherwise this would be one of the most challenging projections that I have had to do. That is because there are an unusually high number of players that are on the bubble of qualifying as compensatory free agents. This is due to this cutoff being close to $3 million APY, which is a round and popular amount to give to free agents.

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

• Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #98
• Carlton Davis (Detroit => New England): #100

4th/5th

• Jevon Holland (Miami => New York Giants): #192
• DJ Reed (New York Jets => Detroit): #196
• Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #196

5th/6th

• Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #295
• Kevin Zeitler (Detroit => Tennessee): #298
• Jourdan Lewis (Dallas => Jacksonville): #300

6th/7th

• Joe Flacco (Indianapolis => Cleveland & Cincinnati): #491
• Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #491

7th/Qualifying

• Chuma Edoga (Dallas => Jacksonville): #667
• Azeez Ojulari (New York Giants => Philadelphia): #669
• Ifeatu Melifonwu (Detroit => Miami): #674
• Eric Wilson (Green Bay => Minnesota): #675
• Brandin Echols (New York Jets => Pittsburgh): #676
• Solomon Thomas (New York Jets => Dallas): #680
• Tremon Smith (Denver => Houston): #685
• Deatrich Wise (New England => Washington): #688
• Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #688
• JK Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers => Denver): #693
• Nick Westbrook-Ihkine (Tennessee => Miami): #694
• Tyler Conklin (New York Jets => Los Angeles Chargers): #695
• Jacob Martin (Chicago => Washington): #702
• Cooper Rush (Dallas => Baltimore): #703

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

The contract that JK Dobbins signed with the Broncos on June 11 is unusual because it is a rare case of a player eligible to become a compensatory free agent despite being signed after the normal cutoff date on the Monday after the draft. This is due to the Chargers playing a UFA tender on him in order to preserve his compensatory free agent potential.

But it is additionally unusual due to a new provision that Denver put into his contract with regard to his per game roster bonuses of a total of $680,000. In order to earn any of them, no matter how many games he played, he or the Broncos also had to meet at least one of ten metrics. This caused all of his per gamers to be classified as Not Likely To Be Earned. With the Broncos tying for the best record in the league and now just one game away from playing in the Super Bowl, the team met that metric easily for Dobbins.

Dobbins played 10 games in the regular season before suffering a Lisfranc injury that sidelined him until perhaps this upcoming AFC Championship Game. This means that he earned $400,000 of the per gamers. In addition to his base salary of $1.338 million and a signing bonus of $727,000, Dobbins also earned a $255,000 incentive for rushing 700 yards that also needed one of many metrics that included the same improvement in Broncos wins. Thus, at the very least, his APY under the compensatory formula will be $2.72 million.

The question is how the compensatory formula will judge the Not Likely To Be Earned $280,000 in per gamers that was indeed not earned. There are two contradictory clauses in Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) on this matter, emphasis mine:

A player’s Gross Salary shall include: […] (d) roster bonus (including per-game bonuses, which shall count in full)

A player’s Gross Salary shall also include: (a) official performance incentives […] that are earned by the player in the first League Year of the contract, or that are considered “likely to be earned”

The remaining $280,000 were considered incentives that were neither earned or Likely To Be Earned, which would reject them from counting under the second clause. But they were also per game roster bonuses, which would qualify them under the first clause.

To account for the situation that casts more doubt on whether Dobbins will qualify as a CFA, I am projecting that the first clause will override the second, and that Dobbins’s APY will be at that key number of $3 million, which draws him very close to the qualification bubble that will be consequential for both the Broncos and Chargers.

Possible Altering Scenarios

• Baltimore
  • If Cooper Rush qualifies, Baltimore will not get a 7th for Tre’Davious White.
• Dallas
  • If Chuma Edoga qualifies and Solomon Thomas and Cooper Rush do not qualify, or if all three players qualify, Dallas will get a 6th for Rico Dowdle.
• Denver
  • If JK Dobbins qualifies, Denver will not get a 7th for Javonte Williams.
• Detroit
  • If Ifeatu Melifonwu does not qualify, Detroit will only be eligible for a net value 7th round comp pick that will not make the 32 pick limit.
  • If Ifeatu Melifonwu qualifies and DJ Reed’s contract is valued in the 5th round, Detroit will get a 3rd or 4th for Carlton Davis instead of a 5th or 6th for Kevin Zeitler.
• Los Angeles Chargers
  • If JK Dobbins qualifies and Tyler Conklin does not qualify, the Los Angeles Chargers will get a 6th for Kristian Fulton.
• Miami
  • If Ifeatu Melifonwu and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine do not qualify, Miami will get a 4th or 5th for Jevon Holland.
• Minnesota
  • If Eric Wilson does not qualify, Minnesota gets a 5th for Daniel Jones.
• New York Jets
  • If Brandin Echols, Solomon Thomas, and Tyler Conklin all do not qualify, the New York Jets will not get a 5th for Morgan Moses.
• Philadelphia
  • If Azeez Ojulari does not qualify, Philadelphia gets a 6th for Isaiah Rodgers.
• Washington
  • If Deatrich Wise does not qualify, Washington will get a 6th for Dante Fowler.

Visualizing Possible Outcomes

Finally, due to the numerous outcomes that could take place, I thought I’d try something new this draft, and display 20 possibilities, based upon what the leaguewide number could be from the range of historical extremes from 1,886 to 2015. This is a large graphic, so I’m sticking it at the bottom of the page for reference. We’ll see if any of these 20 become the actual results.