The table on the left, representing the top four positions of potential need in 2026, was produced by crossing two metrics that OTC has constructed. One is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that are set to become unrestricted free agents in 2026. (First round rookies from 2022 are excluded, as many will see their fifth year options exercised after the draft.) And the other is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that have a 60% or greater chance of having a negative contract fate, meaning that the contract would be terminated, or the player takes a pay cut. These two percentages are summed together for each team and position. It is possible for these percentages to exceed 100% due to players changing teams from 2024 to 2025.

The teams are sorted by the highest potential needs that could come from this roster churn in 2026–thus, the Commanders, Texans, and Chargers among the most, and the Raiders, Bills, and Lions among the least.

This chart does not guarantee nor suggest that teams will or should pursue their listed positions in the draft with higher priority. A proper holistic approach to the draft will emphasize getting the best football players as practical above all else. However, should teams end up drafting players that align with the positions listed for them, attention should be given by observers to see if those players could be future replacements for incumbents that are set to become free agents, or with contracts that the team might want to shed next season.

Finally, I thought it would be good to sum up just how substantial these potential future needs were at each position leaguewide. The table below sums 4 points for teams that have that position in 1st place, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th.

As will become evident when compared to Jason’s drafting strategies, high value positions like quarterback, offensive line, and edge rusher show up the lowest on the list, while lower valued positions like safety, tight end, and linebacker show up high. Interior defensive line is one divergent position here. But this can also be resolved by observing that positions like quarterback and offensive line in particular tend to have contracts that last longer, and thus are signed for longer terms and have less risk of negative contract fate. This table could suggest that seeing some of those lower value positions drafted in the middle to late rounds could be ones to especially look for as long term competition for incumbent players.