Thoughts on Sauce Gardner’s $120.4 Million Contract Extension with the Jets

The numbers are in for Sauce Gardner’s $120.4 million contract extension and it is an interesting contract, one that falls into the category of being a “market setter” without really setting the market. The structure of the contract is pretty team friendly and creates some solid leverage points for the Jets throughout the life of the contract. Let’s break things down.

Prior to Gardner’s signing the top market CB contract in the NFL was that of Derrick Stingley who signed a three year contract extension worth $30 million per year. The Stingley contract was a massive leap forward for the position, in many ways defying the logic that normally comes from teams negotiating contract extensions. Stingley’s contract was signed days after Jaycee Horn of the Panthers signed a contract worth $25 million a year. The 20% annual raise is one of the largest that you will see these days.

Stingley set new markers at every turn. His raise during the existing rookie contract years was $25.5 million compared to $17.6M for Horn. By the end of the first year of the contract Stingley would earn $46 million compared to just $35 million for Horn. In year two it was $67.5 million to $52 million  and then $90 million to $75 million over three years. Stingley would also be a free agent after three seasons while Horn would be signed after four years.

From the looks of things the Jets looked to find a way to surpass the Stingley APY while staying below Stingley in the most likely to be earned years of the contract. Here is the year by year earnings comparison of Gardner, Stingley, and Horn.

PlayerYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4
Sauce Gardner$15,046,527$40,000,000$60,200,000$90,300,000$120,400,000
Jaycee Horn$17,600,000$35,000,000$52,000,000$75,000,000$100,000,000
Derek Stingley Jr.$25,500,000$46,000,000$67,500,000$90,000,000FA

Gardner’s raise over the next two years is much closer to the Horn market than the Stingley one. The Jets, who also did a big contract extension for Garrett Wilson just the other day, likely pointed out that they were a bit cash poor following their spending in some recent years. That has been a typical Jets pattern under their current ownership and may have played a factor here.

As you look at year 1 and 2 of the new contract years, the Jets basically split the difference between the two contracts as Gardner will fall right between the prior contract 1 and contract 2. The turn comes in year 3 when Gardner will finally surpass Stingley by $300,000 and pull away from Horn. This is a typical contract structure when a team is willing to “set a market” while looking to really keep options open with a player.

The overall cash flow structure of the contract is weak relative to the corner market. Here is the year by year cash payouts relative to the overall size of the contract.

PlayerYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Ahmad Gardner12.5%33.2%50.0%75.0%100.0%FA
A.J. Terrell19.8%37.0%55.6%76.5%100.0%FA
Patrick Surtain II18.1%36.5%54.2%75.0%100.0%FA
Jaycee Horn17.6%35.0%52.0%75.0%100.0%FA
Trevon Diggs18.6%30.9%41.2%57.2%78.4%100.0%
Derek Stingley Jr.28.3%51.1%75.0%100.0%FAFA
Marlon Humphrey28.7%39.0%49.7%61.8%80.3%100.0%
Denzel Ward6.9%29.9%45.7%59.7%79.6%100.0%

The initial pay for Gardner at 12.5% ranks 7th out of 8 players. That moves to 6th after the first year and 5th after the 2nd year. He ranks 3rd by year 3 as the Jets backloaded the contract more than most of the others were able to do.

The guarantee structure of the contracts does not favor Gardner as the market leader. $40.5 million in full guarantees is actually 7th in the NFL though that is often not relevant since vesting schedules dictate more about the guarantees and Garnder has favorable vesting schedules on his salary in 2027 and 2028. The total guarantee of $85.7 million is 2nd in the NFL and while it falls way short of Stingley on a per year basis it is a few million a year higher than Patrick Surtain II of the  Broncos, who was the prior number two at the position when it came to guarantees.

There are also some other minor things with the contract that work in the Jets favor. Gardner took on $750,000 per year in per game bonuses and $250,000 per year in workout bonuses.”.  This is $1 million more than Stingley in per game compensation and $1.25 million more in workout compensation. Surtain has $1.02 million in per game bonuses and no money tied to workouts. The Jets current GM came from Denver and seemed to push the Denver option bonus structure on this contract yet seemed to escape the per game and workout push. The Jets have no history of workout bonuses (this likely was an Aaron Glenn push) and haphazard approach to per gamers. The per game numbers were more in line with Horn and Jalen Ramsey who were more injury prone than Garnder. Stingley also had more injury history, while Surtain was relatively healthy. This seemed like a miss from Gardner’s side.

These bonuses from 2026 through 2028 are also part of his “guarantee package”. Stingley and Surtain’s are not included in the guarantee. For Horn the workout bonuses were but the per gamers were not. This devalues the guarantee since Gardner must be healthy and attend workouts to earn these salaries.

The structure of the contract is interesting to me. The Jets used two balloon payments at the end of the contract of $30.1 million per season.  Prior to those two years the Jets will never pay Gardner more than $25.95 million in a given year. Those numbers seem to indicate that the Jets look at those two seasons as potential out years in the contract. If the Jets exercise both options in the contract the cost to cut in 2029 would be $16.8 million, a savings of about $22 million in cap over his $38.9 million cap figure that year. That type of structure clearly lets the team move on if things do not work out for the long term. In theory the Jets could reduce the dead money by not exercising the options but the structure of the contract makes that unlikely.

The second interesting thing with those salaries is that they are so high that it should prevent Gardner from holding out to seek a new contract if things do go well. All of the other players in year 3 are earning no more than $23 million, and in year four $25 million. If the market moves up to say $35 million a year or more in the next few years all of those players will likely have a gripe about being underpaid and threaten to miss game checks unless their contract is addressed. At $30.1 million in salary that is less likely to be an issue for the Jets. It also throws a ton of “old money” into an extension if they do extend him that would be used as part of the guarantee and prevent the team from having to pay out a ton of new money guarantees while also keeping any raises early in the contract relatively low since the existing salary is already so high.

Gardner does get the benefit of effectively having the first two years of his new contract guaranteed two years prior to the time when he would be franchise tag eligible. His $60M in new money that will be earned by 2028 should far exceed what two franchise tags will cost (the tag would need to jump from $20.2M in 2025 to $27.3M in 2027 to make this meet his current salary) and this $60M is protected from injury already and has a pretty favorable vesting schedule that makes this virtually guaranteed.

Ultimately, I think this is a very solid contract negotiated by the Jets. While they may have had to work with an APY that they were not entirely comfortable with, they seemed to take a  pretty measured approach to how to reach that number and make it comfortable for them. They were able to get some of the soft concessions like workout and per game money while also getting a percentage based cash flow that is very strong relative to the market despite the big numbers that are the first thing that catches someone’s eye. They really protected themselves at the back end of the contract as well. The contract will help nudge the market forward but that Stingley contract is still going to be the main sticking point for any other top flight cornerbacks that come up for an extension in the near future with this one being more of a floor to work off from.