With the 1^st round complete I decided to evaluate each trade using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft chart. The chart which Brad and I created is based on past results of NFL drafts. These values are not going to be indicative of typical trade markets in the NFL but they do provide you the expected returns on each trade when you wind up with the average outcome.

For each trade we calculate points for each draft pick and the difference between these two sets of points is the implied cost of the trade. That cost can then be translated into a single draft pick.

The expected value added for a team is what that draft slot would project at if we translated the rookie performance into veteran contract value (i.e. a QB selected number 1 in the draft would expect to bring a team a value of $55M, essentially projecting as one of the top 5 players at the position). The value lost is what the picks the team traded away would be valued as. For the team trading up the value will be specific to the position they traded up for. For the team trading down it will be a blind trade since there is no guarantee on positional availability. The difference is how much was gained or lost by moving up rather than picking blind.

7.Dolphins Select CB Chris Johnson

Implied Cost: 163 points (UDFA)

Implied Salary Lost: $127K/Year

An ultra fair trade where it is basically a net even for both sides in this trade. You never get these in the first round and maybe that’s a sign of what people thought of this draft class. The Dolphins get a high upside corner and drop down 48 slots later on to do it. The 49ers, clearly not married to anyone at 27, save a few bucks with the 1^st round pick and get a little higher upside with their second selection. Just a solid move for both sides.

6. Titans Select EDGE Keldric Faulk

Implied Cost: 210 points (The 246^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: ($5.65M/Year)

Another very even trade where the Titans get a huge upside position that can make this a great trade while also gaining an option year for a first round pick. This is just the right way to do trades. Move a little up in round one, a little down later on and bit further down in a late round. It keeps the odds high for both sides to land starters/contributors in the draft and not putting all your eggs in one basket. Pick a premium position and the expected return on the trade puts you in a good spot to boot. The Titans certainly have the upside in this trade, but Buffalo makes out fine as well too.

5. Jets Select WR Omar Cooper

Implied Cost: 323 points (The 197^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: ($2.47M/Year)

The Jets probably should have insisted on some kind future late pick here considering the 49ers were willing to include an additional pick to Miami just a few minutes before this trade. I guess you can make a case that the premium of the option year is worthwhile and the Jets did select the right position for that to be a factor, but the Titans didn’t require the same a few minutes later. Jets actually come out ahead in potential value because wide receivers are so valuable and as long as Cooper is a capable NFL player worthy of a 2^nd contract in the $13 to $15 million a year range this will go down as a good trade for the team. The 49ers have done a good job of avoiding a 1^st round premium with the two trades they made.  

4. Texans Select G Keylan Rutledge

Implied Cost: 509 points (The 136^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $5.19M/Year

For the most part selecting a guard in the first round isn’t a great idea, though trends are at least changing a bit in regards to that. Trading up to selecting a guard is still hard to justify. Even though the paper cost isn’t huge at the equivalent of the 136^th pick, the value of the guard puts the Texans way down in actual value lost. Making sure they got another pick in this trade was a smart move and still keeps them in a good position to land at least one starter but they probably were better off staying put.

Buffalo makes out pretty well here. They only drop a few spots in round 1 to get a big jump later on plus they add a late pick. This is the right approach to the draft even if the return isn’t a blow away return relative to some past trades.

3. Cowboys Select S Caleb Downs

Implied Cost: 701 points( The 93^rd pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $7.92M/Year

The bright side for Dallas in this one is it could have been far worse had they gotten antsy and made an earlier trade. I know what everyone will say about the special qualities of Downs and he may be great, but if you are going to make this trade he has to be incredible, essentially the top safety in the NFL by year 2. It is just such an available position it is hard to justify selecting one this high let alone trading up to make the pick.

A steal for Miami who land a more premier position (the value is actually higher than shown since we value the trade down as “blind” and this wasn’t) and a reasonable chance for two contributors later in the draft. Similar to the Bills trade above, just because it isn’t as good as some past trades in a similar spot it was far better than just sitting pat because the deal wasn’t good enough.

2. Eagles Select WR Makai Lemon

Implied Cost: 1,036 points (The 48^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $2.48M/Year

A pretty big premium paid by the Eagles who give up far more for a lower pick than the Cowboys gave up in their earlier trade. An implied cost of the 48^th pick in the draft is a pretty big number, but this is one of those areas where the positional value does lessen the blow for the Eagles here. While Dallas comes up way behind in their trade because they choose a safety, the Eagles are pretty close in value. They don’t need Downs to be a superstar, they just need him to be a high level two or low level one to justify the trade. If he is anything more it is excess value for the Eagles. That makes the number here easier to take, you just wonder if they got too locked in on this one player.

This is a terrific trade for the Cowboys who increase their probability of finding at least one starter and if things go right could easily land two starters with their picks they acquire here.

1. Chiefs Select CB Mansoor Delane

Implied Cost: 1,081 points (The 44^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $6.47M/Year

This trade seemed to catch some people off guard as Delane seemed to be someone who might be available to the Chiefs at 9. This felt a little need based considering they lost their other players, but I do think the Chiefs have the strategy right of getting high level play from rookies or lower cost veterans and then let someone else pay them big after they have had success with the Chiefs while the Chiefs start over. The Chiefs essentially give up the value of the 44^th pick and Delane needs to be a top five corner to justify the move.

A no brainer for the Browns who simply need bodies and don’t lose much dropping three spots while picking up a much better chance of finding two starters than just one.