With the draft complete I thought it would be a good time to go back and look at the trades near the top of the draft. For each trade I am evaluating the trade using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft chart. The chart which Brad and I created is based on past results of NFL drafts. These values are not going to be indicative of typical trade markets in the NFL but they do provide you the expected returns on each trade when you wind up with the average outcome.

For each trade we calculate points for each draft pick. I am valuing a future pick this year as the middle pick in a round as that is the average outcome that would occur. While this often upsets people due to traditional valuations (discounting a future pick by a round which is just crazy- ask any team that traded away a future pick that landed top 10 in that round) the fact is a future 1 is still a future 1. In the past I have used the 32^nd pick in a round and that is what our own calculator uses but after more thought I think to really get an idea for a trade its best to just use the average outcome. Anyway, the difference between these two sets of points is the implied cost of the trade. That cost can then be translated into a single draft pick.

The expected value added for a team is what that draft slot would project at if we translated the rookie performance into veteran contract value (i.e. a QB selected number 1 in the draft would expect to bring a team a value of $55M, essentially projecting as one of the top 5 players at the position). The value lost is what the picks the team traded away would be valued as. For the team trading up the value will be specific to the position they traded up for. For the team trading down it will be a blind trade since there is no guarantee on positional availability. The difference is how much was gained or lost by moving up rather than picking blind.

17. Panthers select EDGE Nic Scourton

Implied Cost: 11 points(UDFA)

Implied Salary Lost: ($2.98M/Year)

In all my years of looking at draft trades in the first two rounds of the draft I don’t think I have ever seen a trade this balanced before. By more advanced metrics this is basically a dead even trade. Panthers move up early and then the Broncos get the two move ups in the next two spots before the Panthers get a late boost. If there was a slight edge to give in the trade I would only lean toward Carolina because they which player they were targeting and he should play a higher valued position than who may have been available with a blind pick a few slots later. Both of these teams should get a ton of credit for how this was approached.

16. Texans select CB Jaylin Smith

Implied Cost: 114 points(UDFA)

Implied Salary Lost: $1.06M/Year

Another very fair trade on the day with the two sides more or less balancing things out by having a 6^th and 5^th round pick swap as part of the trade. This is the way to get things done when you really want a specific player and the other side is fine with a number of options. Both sides come out thinking they won and you can make a strong case both sides did win.

15. Jaguars select G Wyatt Milum

Implied Cost: 188 points(The 256^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $2.6M/Year

Another very balanced trade by both teams here, really getting those secondary selection right to balance things out. While the Jaguars do lose out on value here by selecting an interior lineman, this is a round where you should do better than average on a guard which should bump the expected value up for the 89^th pick. In addition, Jacksonville has always been aggressive with UDFA guarantees so they can easily make up the lost value by going very aggressively at one of those top UDFAs.

14. Lions select G Tate Ratledge

Implied Cost: 263 points(The 221^st pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $3.5M/Year

This is also a pretty balanced trade with the Lions giving up the value of the 221^st pick to move up 3 spots to make select Ratledge. Getting the late pick was a smart move by the Lions and this year in particular we are seeing more teams get those late picks rather than doing the more common two for one type trades. Moving up for a guard isn’t always the smartest of things but if the need is for a $10 million player to balance the trade, well that isn’t very far fetched to consider as a possibility.

13. Broncos select EDGE Sai’vion Jones

Implied Cost: 305 points(The 203^rd pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $519K/Year

I think if the Broncos could have dropped one round lower on the 3^rd pick included here it would have balanced things out pretty perfectly but at least they did move up for a pass rusher which can justify the slight premium that was paid to move up 10 picks.

12. Bills select DT TJ Sanders

Implied Cost: 318 points(The 198^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $2.1M/Year

I loved the way this trade broke down and it shows a really strong understanding of the way trades should work in the NFL. You get two very fair swaps in the top 75 and then the Bears pick up pick 109 while the Bills make sure that is matched by a late pick giving them some value and a potential depth pick in the draft. Most teams would have not pushed for that late pick but good on the Bills for doing it. The Bears still come out ahead but the Bills mitigate even some of that by jumping up for a higher value position.

11. Eagles select LB Jihaad Campbell

Implied Cost: 399 points(The 169^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $6.42M/Year

A very basic trade giving away a middle round pick this year to move up the one spot to make a pick. This is an easy decision for KC who wasn’t losing anything here. The benefit for the Eagles is they didn’t do anything dumb by including a higher pick next year rather than this year’s known selection. The salary value here is poor for Philly because trading up for a LB is rarely a good use of draft assets but considering the odds were in their favor of drafting him at 32 anyway that really isn’t part of their calculation as the expected value would be driven down if they land a LB at 32.

10. Panthers select EDGE Princely Umanmielen

Implied Cost: 424 points(The 161^st pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $1.08M/Year

This is not the balanced trade we saw earlier from Carolina as they were unable to pry a late pick back from the Patriots but again we offset some of this cost by selecting a premium position which has a tendency to fall off a cliff after the 3^rd round which balances this out from the Panthers perspective making it a bit of a win-win for both sides.

9. Falcons select S Xavier Watts

Implied Cost: 435 points(The 115^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $5.117M/Year

Just a bad move overall by the Falcons giving away a future pick to jump all of five spots to select a safety. On the plus side for Atlanta, the 3^rd round has been a solid place to select safeties, but so have all middle rounds. They needed to get a pick back in return for this one and whiffed at that. Watts needs to be a really good one to justify the cost here, essentially a top 15 to 20 player at the position.

8. Chiefs select CB Nohl Williams

Implied Cost: 535 points(The 121^st pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $4.6M/Year

This is a lot to give up to move up 10 spots in the mid third round for a higher variance position. Give the Patriots credit in their trades for forcing the teams into two for one swaps with New England getting to hold all of their late picks needed to rebuild their roster.

7. Seahawks select S Nick Emmanwori

Implied Cost: 566 points(The 121^st pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $7.32M/Year

Seattle effectively gives up the value of a 4^th round pick to jump high into round two, but using a trade up for a safety is a questionable decision. A more premium position adds more value even at a later pick so the team gets wiped out when you factor that in, making the cost here really gigantic. They will need him to be a star once he gets going in the NFL. Easy decision for Tennessee to do this trade.

6. Texans select T Aireontae Ersery

Implied Cost: 575 points(The 119^st pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $4.924M/Year

Every year with these draft trades the Texans sometimes make out great and other times don’t. It makes it very hard to predict anything with their front office. I guess the takeaway is if they love a player you can get them to overpay and if they don’t they will play more hardball with a trade. This is one of those where they gave up nearly $5 million a year in value to jump those 10 spots in the 2^nd round. This feels like a bit of a premium paid for need with the cost being mitigated a bit by selecting a tackle and not needing him to be great to make up that difference.

5. Dolphins select G Jonah Savaiinaea

Implied Cost: 591 points(The 115^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $6.58M/Year

This is another example of trading up into a position you probably should not be trading up for. The team loses out on value by dropping to the non-premium tier of positions and gives away their comp pick along with a swap in the middle of the draft. The value given up here is really big meaning the player has to be a higher end starter to make up that difference. That isn’t impossible but it is not likely either.

4. Lions select WR Isaac TeSlaa

Implied Cost: 664 points(The 100^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $2.875M/Year

This is a really high cost for a 3^rd round player, essentially giving up the value of the 100^th pick in the draft to move up to select TeSlaa. From a positional standpoint this is a position to move up for and it offsets a little of the cost but you really should not be this aggressive this late.  The odds are far more in the favor of the Jaguars to land a starting quality player out of this trade than the Lions.

3. Falcons select EDGE James Pearce

Implied Cost: 863 points(The 67^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $3.04M/Year

The Falcons had to move up a lot to grab their guy and it is a very risky move. On paper the Falcons give up the value of an early 3^rd round pick to jump back into the first round but this is highly contingent on how the season goes for the Falcons and gives the Rams major upside. If the draft pick lands top 10 then the implied value skyrockets. If it is top 5 this would be one of the worst trades ever made for a late 1^st rounder. An absolute gem of a trade for the Rams here.  

2. Giants select QB Jaxson Dart

Implied Cost: 1,295 points(The 28^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: ($2.995M/Year)

This is a unique trade where the Giants give up a lot, the equivalent of the 28^th pick in the draft, but come away with potentially far more value than the keeping their own picks simply because they selected a QB. The question for the Giants to answer is whether or not a viable option would have been available at 34?  If the answer is yes there is no justification for giving up this much late in the first round. If the answer is no then the trade is understandable.

I think the issue here for the Giants is that they clearly let it be known that they were moving up for a QB. Maybe there was no way for the Giants to bluff their way out of that but the Texans did a great job of getting New York to part with two really strong selections this year. I am going to guess that the Giants would not have been able to include a 1 next year or at least sold it that they could not so that was a positive for NY but the cost would never have been close to this if they could have convinced Houston they were coming up for an offensive lineman or help in the secondary.

1. Jaguars select WR/CB Travis Hunter

Implied Cost: 1,902 points( The 9^th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $7.544M/Year

An ultra aggressive trade for the Jaguars who move up just three spots to select Hunter and in the process give up a high 2^nd round pick this year and a 1^st rounder next year. This would be the equivalent of giving up the 9^th pick in the draft to move up those three spots. These trades rarely work out for the team who makes them. The gold standard would be Julio Jones who had a HOF career with Atlanta. The downside is most everyone else.

Many people have brought up that Hunter is a 2 for 1 player but it is doubtful that he will play that role at this level. He should mainly see action at the more important position which is wide receiver and that is where his value will be. I am sure he will see some time in the secondary but at some point it is in both his and the team’s best interests to settle on one position. If the Jaguars stink again this season this trade will be a horrific one. A top 10 pick moves this to the equivalent of the 5^th overall pick and a top 3 pick would make this the equivalent of the 1^st overall pick. The Jaguars being that bad would also be a sign that the team whiffed on Trevore Lawrence leaving them with two extremely talented wide receivers and no QB which would be a disaster. On the other side of the spectrum if they do make the playoffs this will look like a far less bad trade for them. An easy no brainer for the Browns to have accepted this offer.